Mary Lou McDonald
THE DIVISIONS within Sinn Féin over whether to run party leader, Mary McDonald, for the presidency are multiple and have created political paralysis within the party. Even worse, it has handed the leadership of a united, anti-government presidential campaign to Independent candidate, Catherine Connolly and her main supporters in the Social Democrats. Connolly realised that instead of waiting to see if or when SF would lead the charge she could reverse roles and jump to the leadership of such a campaign. This may turn out to be a temporary state of play, but right now it is Connolly, the Soc Dems and other left TDs that are calling the shots, not Mary Lou and SF.
The background to much of the debate in SF is the new creed within the party (although not all of it) that says a united left opposition must be created in order to bring SF to power at the head of such a broad movement. This method worked in the row over Michael Lowry’s hybrid government/opposition stunt some months ago and shows signs of also working on neutrality and Palestine. The left wing and most SF leadership personalities, including Mary Lou, have accepted this method but not everybody has at the top and at grassroots level.
When it comes to the presidency debate there are several arguments that have been put forward. First is the negative and probably misguided calculation that Mary Lou’s time has come and gone and that after two ‘failed’ elections, it is time for a new strategy and leadership in any case. The presidency offers a perfect opportunity whereby she could gracefully slip away with an additional bonus being that she could conceivably win it given comparison with the other candidates.
Some of those who support this strategy also hold the fanciful view that if she failed to take the presidency she could return to leadership of the party with no discernible credibility damage.
Another view is that McDonald is at the peak of her powers; that she rescued the party from a dire general election position last year and brought it back to a few points off its leading position in 2020; that to run her for the park would be to throw away the best leader the party now has. Supporters of this view also argue that the next general election is the overwhelming priority and that nothing — certainly not an unlikely presidential victory — should distract from this.
The same quarter also believes that the united left opposition is the way to government and that if such unity cannot be forged in a presidential campaign there is little hope for this goal in a general election. It is also pointed out that while Mary Lou is a formidable campaigner, there are unpredictable dangers in presidential contests. It would not be a good look should Mary Lou lose the initiative to a multi-pronged, left wing campaign behind Connolly and come third behind her and the Fine Gael candidate, Mairead. McGuinness.
A group of TDs who have become weary and wary of the political options and complexities in this Babel-like debate now believe the party should simply row in behind Connolly without necessarily moving into a leadership position in a united, left campaign.
There are three possibilities. First is that Mary Lou runs for Sinn Féin in the presidential election. This is unlikely on the balance of the debate and the factions and also because it is a high risk strategy that could rebound badly. However, those who want to run McDonald argue strongly that such timidity is an unhealthy approach that cost the party dearly in recent years.
Second is that SF swings in behind Catherine Connolly in a broad, left campaign. This is more likely but would probably see a luke-warm, supportive role for SF instead of the vibrant, leadership involvement required for a strong unified campaign and one that would inspire movement towards a united front at the next election. However, there is a view among many members that SF, the biggest party in the country, should not allow the small ‘left’ parties to ride piggy back on them.
Third is that SF runs its own candidate, but from the Republic rather than the north as Michelle O’Neill is not thought to be a viable candidate ‘down here’ and Belfast North MP and solicitor, John Finucane, is not keen to run either.
Just who the southern candidate might be is not obvious at this stage, but whoever it might be would be kept under wraps for as long as possible so that the media and political opponents are not given adequate time to dismantle whoever is the unfortunate Shinner selected.
One irony in all of this is that neither of the two best candidates, Mary Lou and John Finucane, want to stand for the presidency.
