Micheál Martin
THE ISRAELI horror show in Gaza cannot hide for long the uncomfortable fact – for Nato and the West, including Ireland – that Ukraine stands on the edge of defeat in war against Russia. That the Irish Government, and Micheál Martin in particular, does not appear to be even faintly embarrassed by this says much about the abandonment of an honourable Irish foreign policy that served us well for decades. But the over-eager desire to impress the large EU states as well as the US has led to an ingratiating attitude to the western powers just as their authority and prestige is going into decline.
As Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy underwent a rather optimistic tour to drum up support in the Global South, his defence forces reported that Russia was attacking along the entire length of the 1,000 km frontline. It has also been widely reported that Zelenskyy has fallen out with his armed forces commander-in-chief, Valeriy Zaluzhny – not a good look in the middle of a war – with the president accused of delusional notions of total victory.
The great military setback, of course, has been the complete lack of success of the great counter-offensive that was supposed to have pushed back the Russians, starting last autumn – a failure since compounded by the failure or unwillingness of Nato countries to adequately re-equip Ukrainian forces. And this is where the real and probably fatal weakness in the Ukrainian/Nato alliance can be seen as the latter countries now appear to have lost confidence in the ability of the Ukrainian forces to sustain the fight.
This, in turn, has led to sections of the US establishment – the very agency that more than any other triggered this war – pulling back on moves to keep funding that war.
The surest sign of division and, by some, a defeatism in the West is the warning by one of the weather vanes of the British establishment, The Economist magazine, last October. It advised that the US was pulling back from the war and it was down to the EU to sustain Ukraine militarily and financially over a long period of time (see The Phoenix 6/10/23).
In the same week, Tánaiste and foreign minister Micheál Martin – the mouse that has roared for nearly two years now – warned that the war could last for five years and Ireland was in it for the long haul.
As the Government reduced welfare payments and emergency accommodation for Ukrainian refugees to pauper-like levels, after posturing as their champions and egging on the West in this war, the face of Ireland abroad has changed radically. There was a time when Ireland was seen as non-aligned and neutral and, while few would defend Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many Irish people would also recognise that Nato is not a benevolent force in the world and particularly in eastern Europe.
However, the Ukrainian war has seen the Irish elite and Government, as well as the budding Irish arms industry, seize the opportunity to attack Irish neutrality with nonsense about the Russian threat, the ‘sacred cow of neutrality’ and so on. Suddenly Martin and the Government organised a forum about defence and security, which was chaired by a US/British-based Irish expert on terrorism, Dame Louise Richardson, and was stacked with other experts, mostly critics of neutrality. This blew up in Martin’s face as the entire exercise was widely seen as an effort to undermine our foreign policy.
The economic growth of the Global South and the greater political confidence of those countries is changing the face of global politics. Most of its members would have seen Ireland as a natural, political ally, geography notwithstanding, because of our anti-colonial history before and after independence.
That is no longer the case due to the shrill and unnecessary posturing of the Government, Martin in particular, as allies of Nato against Russia. Leo Varadkar’s statements about the Israeli carnage in Gaza has gone some way to clawing back part of this credibility but our independent, anti-colonial image has been badly tarnished in the last few years.
